World Cup 2026 Tips — Thursday 2 July: Three R32 Ties Picked

Three Round-of-32 knockouts on the card for Thursday 2 July (ET) — and for Aussie punters that means an early-Friday-morning-into-Friday-afternoon AEST run of football. A Ronaldo-vs-Modrić farewell, a wounded Spain, and a coach taking on the country he built. Here are the picks, the decimal lines, and where the value sits.

Spain vs Austria — ~5:00 AM AEST (Fri 3 July)

Odds (decimal): Spain 1.33 | Draw 5.25 | Austria 10.00.

Spain arrive as the story of the group stage — the first time in their history they’ve completed a World Cup group without conceding. But they come into the knockouts bruised in attack: Nico Williams (adductor) and Yeremy Pino (shoulder) are both ruled out, throwing even more creative load onto 18-year-old Lamine Yamal. Austria, meanwhile, are here on a fairytale of their own — the knockouts for the first time since 1998 under Ralf Rangnick, through on a 96th-minute equaliser, and importantly fully fit.

The read: 1.33 on Spain is short for a side missing two of its front-line runners against a well-drilled, fully-fit Rangnick block. Backing Spain straight is thin value. The smarter angle is Austria with a start or on the goals line — a Rangnick team at 10.00 is not making up the numbers, and if this stays 0–0 into the second half the nerves are all Spanish. Lean: Austria +1.5 / under total goals rather than the short favourite.

Portugal vs Croatia — ~9:00 AM AEST (Fri 3 July)

Odds (decimal): Portugal 1.77–1.80 | Draw 3.40–3.65 | Croatia 4.70–5.00.

This is the tie with a lump in its throat. It likely frames the final World Cup of both Cristiano Ronaldo (40) and Luka Modrić (41) — ex-Real Madrid team-mates, six Ballon d’Ors between them, and one of them is guaranteed to bow out on Thursday. The head-to-head history is Portugal-leaning (7 wins from 10 meetings), but the last meeting was a 1–1, and Croatia’s tournament machine — Modrić and Kovačić controlling, Gvardiol anchoring — is exactly the kind of experienced side that drags favourites into the mud.

The read: the draw at 3.40–3.65 is the value pick. Croatia specialise in tight, low-event knockouts that they win on pens; Portugal have blown hot and cold. A 1–1-into-extra-time shape is very live, and if you fancy Croatia to nick it, "Croatia to advance" carries far more value than the 90-minute win line. Lean: the draw, or Croatia to advance.

Switzerland vs Algeria — ~1:00 PM AEST (Fri 3 July)

Odds (decimal): Switzerland 2.02 | Draw 3.10 | Algeria 3.94.

The nerd’s delight of the day: the first-ever competitive meeting between these two, with a cracking subplot — Algeria coach Vladimir Petković spent seven years managing Switzerland before Murat Yakin, and now he’s out to knock out the side he built. Switzerland topped Group B on 7 points and look fully fit (Xhaka, Freuler, Jashari all available); Algeria squeaked through as a third-placed side after a wild 3–3 with Austria and carry a major worry over Mohamed El Amine Amoura, a serious doubt with a thigh/hamstring problem.

The read: 2.02 on a fully-fit, better-organised Switzerland is the soundest single on the card. If Amoura misses, Algeria lose their sharpest outlet and this leans Swiss further. Lean: Switzerland to win/advance, with a small-stakes flutter on under 2.5 goals given Switzerland’s controlled midfield.

Odds are decimal, converted from search-summary market data as of 2026-07-02 ~08:00 ET. Aggregator lines move — confirm with your book before kickoff.

The Aussie viewing note

For once the timing is punter-friendly: Spain–Austria around 5:00 AM, Portugal–Croatia around 9:00 AM, and Switzerland–Algeria around 1:00 PM AEST on Friday 3 July. A full day of knockout football that bookends the working Friday — and a decent warm-up before the main event, the Socceroos vs Egypt clash at 4am Saturday. For the wider market picture, our outright odds before the Round of 16 tracks who’s shortening and who’s drifting.

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